David Manheim

Researcher, Decision Theorist, and Public Policy Wonk in Israel

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Hi, I’m David Manheim, Head of Biosecurity Policy for Guarding Against Pandemics, and Founding Director of a new Israeli nonprofit, the Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER). I'm also currently an advisor to several organizations, including PIBBSS.ai, the Effective Institutions Project, and 1DaySooner, and a visiting researcher at the Technion.

My work focuses on public policy research and advocacy, specializing in biological and technological risks and the impacts of new technologies. My research ranges from COVID-19 to the future of pandemic response and monitoring to forecasting risks, and I have done work for the World Bank, the Council on Strategic Risks, and Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute.

I'm also a happily married father of four wonderful kids. In my free time, I like thinking about Goodhart's Law, Artificial Intelligence alignment, and the long-term future of humanity. I've also been a #Superforecaster with the Good Judgement Project since 2012.

If you'd like to chat, feel free to get in touch on Twitter - my DMs are open.

In earlier lives, I did a PhD in Public Policy from Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. Before that, I used my undergraduate degree in mathematics working first with equity derivatives pricing, then catastrophe risk modeling for reinsurance.

  • Education
    • Frederick S. Pardee RAND Graduate School
    • Lander College