David Manheim

Researcher, Decision Theorist, and Public Policy Wonk in Israel

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I’m David Manheim, Founder and head of research and policy at the Association for Long Term Existence and Resilience (ALTER). I'm also currently a visiting lecturer at the Technion, and an advisor to several organizations, including PIBBSS.ai, the Effective Institutions Project, and 1DaySooner.

In earlier lives, I completed a PhD in Public Policy at the Pardee Rand Graduate School focusing on risk analysis and decision theory. Before that, I used my background in mathematics, first for equity derivatives pricing, then catastrophe risk modeling for reinsurance.

My current work focuses on public policy research and advocacy, specializing in biological and technological risks and the impacts of new technologies. My research ranges from risks from artificial intelligence, to the future of pandemic prevention, to forecasting risks, and I have consulted for the World Bank, the Council on Strategic Risks, and Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute.

I'm also a happily married father of four wonderful kids. In my free time, I like thinking about Goodhart's Law, Artificial Intelligence alignment, and the long-term future of humanity. I've also been a #Superforecaster with the Good Judgement Project since 2012.

If you'd like to chat, feel free to get in touch on Twitter - my DMs are open.

  • Education
    • Frederick S. Pardee RAND Graduate School
    • Lander College